After a Surprising 2023, a Cautiously Optimistic Economic Outlook for 2024
After a Surprising 2023, a Cautiously Optimistic Economic Outlook for 2024Despite high interest rates and unsettling geopolitical conflict, the U.S. economy outperformed the expectations of most economists in 2023.1 通货膨胀-adjusted gross domestic product (Real GDP) accelerated to an annualized rate of 5.第三季度为2%，此前为增长2%.Q2和2的1%.第一季度增长2%. 通货膨胀, as measured by the 12-month change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), 是3.2023年10月为0%，年初为5.5%.2 The labor market stayed strong in 2023, though it has cooled off a bit. 失业率从3%小幅上升.1月份从4%降至3%.9% in October, but is still quite low by historical standards.3
That is all good news considering that a majority of economists polled in January 2023 believed the United States would enter a recession by the end of the year.4 但无论你是一个投资者, 一个企业主, 或者一个员工在考虑你的职业前景, you may be more interested in what lies ahead for the economy in 2024.
经济预测基本上是有根据的猜测. Economists in the public and private sectors are tasked with trying to predict the future based on a wide range of indicators, 潜在的风险, 以及他们对市场状况的总体印象. 到目前为止, forecasts for 2024 seem to suggest the economy is kicking off the new year in a more stable position.5
美联储政策和官方预测
Since March 2022, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve has raised the benchmark federal funds rate aggressively in an effort to control inflation, 它已经攀升到40年来的最高水平.6–7 Raising interest rates is meant to slow economic activity by making it more expensive for consumers and businesses to borrow money, 这阻碍了消费.
2023年11月, the Fed paused its rate hikes for the second meeting in a row, 将联邦基金利率维持在5%的区间.25% to 5.5%，创22年新高.8
Economic projections released at the FOMC’s September meeting indicated that slower GDP growth is expected, 中值投影为1.5% in 2024. 这是对1的改进.之前的预测是1%. The committee expected PCE inflation to continue declining and end the year at 2.5%，这仍然高于美联储的2%.0% target, and that the unemployment rate would tick up to 4.1%（基于中位数预测）.9
调查专业人士
2023年10月, The Wall Street Journal’s Economic Forecasting Survey found that a recession is no longer the consensus view of 65 top business and academic economists polled by the publication on a quarterly basis. On average, the group expects real GDP growth will slow to 1.失业率将小幅上升至4%左右.0%, and inflation (measured by the consumer price index) will fall to 2.到2024年底，这一比例将达到4%.10
Nearly 60% of the economists believed the Fed was finished hiking interest rates, and roughly half thought that rate cuts would begin in the second quarter of 2024, 这是对经济增长放缓迹象的回应.11
At the same time, some economists were still not convinced that the U.S. 经济已脱离困境. 最近一次是在2023年11月, the Conference Board predicted that a very short and shallow recession will begin early in 2024.12
全球增长趋势
According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s September forecast, 全球经济有望增长.2023年为0%，然后放缓至2%.7% in 2024. 在中国，增长率预计将从5%下降.2023年1%到4%.6%, due to its struggling property market and reduced domestic demand. 欧元区的经济增长预计将从零开始改善.2023年为6%到1%.1% in 2024. 通货膨胀预期将逐渐下降, but to remain above central bank objectives in most economies.13
“当然, even with state-of-the-art models and even in relatively calm times, 经济经常让我们感到意外.”
— 美联储主席鲍威尔
预测的问题
Forecasts such as these may be helpful in making some kinds of financial decisions, but it’s also important to consider their limitations and remember that it’s not unusual for economists to change their minds. Recent years have shown how difficult it can be for forecasters to account for the impact of unforeseen economic disruption. Wild cards that could test economists in 2024 include losses from severe weather, 油价波动, 美国的政治冲突, 以及以色列战争的扩大, 这可能会损害本已脆弱的全球经济.
事实上, 美联储主席鲍威尔 called on Fed forecasters to remain flexible in his November 2023 press conference. “当然, even with state-of-the-art models and even in relatively calm times, 经济经常让我们感到意外.他接着说, “我们的经济是灵活而充满活力的, 有时还会受到不可预知的冲击, 比如全球金沙官网危机或流行病. At those times, forecasters have to think outside the models.”14
The financial markets could continue to react — and occasionally overreact — to economic news and policies announced by the Federal Reserve. 但这并不意味着你也应该这样做. 一如既往地, it’s important to maintain a long-term perspective and invest strategically based on your financial goals, 时间范围, 风险承受能力.
Forecasts are based on current conditions, are subject to change, and may not come to pass. All 投资s are subject to market fluctuation, risk, and loss of principal. When sold, 投资s may be worth more or less than their original cost.